edited by Michela Tonon, Political Analyst (Global Markets)

The world, shaped over several decades by globalization and geoeconomics, and consequently by interdependencies of systems, has rapidly transformed into a sphere more profoundly influenced by geopolitical risks than ever before. The sequence of disruptive events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the turmoil in the Middle East, is expected to continue in the coming years. Additionally, impending factors like the threat of new wars, extreme weather events, a looming global recession, and domestic complexities are likely to significantly impact the global landscape in 2024.

The emerging developments lead to a significant restructuring of global structures and a redesign of international relations. Companies and business associations are now more than ever challenged to proactively assess risks to achieve optimal resilience.

In the following, five challenges of global supply chains are outlined that could potentially impact your company or organization. We also present ways in which you can identify and assess risks using PANALIS Software Agnoscis Analytics – the establishment of an early warning system based on artificial intelligence.

1. Geopolitical Instability

The conflict in Ukraine stands out as a major factor contributing to inflation in energy and food prices, an issue many countries continue to grapple with. The events have significantly disrupted supply chains, leading to a global food crisis. Additionally, the shortage of fertilizers is affecting agricultural production in various nations. While some grain deliveries from Ukraine have alleviated famine-stricken countries like Yemen, this alone is insufficient to resolve the broader global food supply crisis.

In addition, geopolitical tensions are on the rise, exerting substantial effects on the world economy. Trade disruptions between the USA and China could have far-reaching consequences on international cooperation and trade flows, with several economies already experiencing declining exports. Further escalation of tensions could disrupt critical supply chains.

The ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has escalated the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and intensified confrontations between Iran and the United States. These developments will have significant implications for the region. The outcome of the Gaza conflict will play a crucial role in determining the positions of Arabian Peninsula states, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran in the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether trade relations with this region will present opportunities or face challenging conditions in the future.

Cyberattacks are on the rise and are being employed as a tool of statecraft, resulting in growing human and financial consequences. Governments and organizations are therefore vigilant to signs of international tensions.

2. Energy crisis

The present energy supply scenario poses a substantial challenge for both industry and private households. The rising prices of energy, particularly gas, largely attributed to the Ukraine conflict, coupled with the resultant reduced supply of Central Europe from Russia, have compelled companies to intensify exploration of alternative energy sources and undertake comprehensive restructuring of production systems. The current situation carries the risk of a sustained economic upheaval, with potential repercussions on global production supply chains.

The impacts of disruptive events in recent years on companies and organizations can be diverse. For instance, in Pakistan, the workweek was universally shortened across industries to reduce energy consumption. The United States is witnessing a sustained decline in revenue forecasts for retailers, and many automotive manufacturers in Western industrialized nations remain apprehensive about their production levels. There is a growing concern that energy supply shortages could impede economic activities in numerous countries and lead to a slowdown in international trade. Urgent and sustainable solutions are imperative to address these energy-related challenges and ensure the stability of the global economy.

The increasing national debt continues to escalate, leading to a deterioration in the creditworthiness of sovereign states and a potential rise in payment defaults. The possibility of a severe sovereign debt crisis is a cause for concern, as exports decline in many key economies, raising concerns about global fragmentation. Governments are now exploring financing options on international markets to counter the imminent threat of a major sovereign debt crisis. The significant increase in inflation results in households facing significant challenges, particularly due to rising food expenses. The expectation that consumers will need to drastically reduce their expenditures renders the demand for goods and services uncertain. Consequently, supply chain planners encounter difficulties in accurately predicting the quantities and types of goods consumers are likely to require.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, various uncertainties have complicated post-pandemic recovery for numerous industries, particularly due to acute labor shortages. The increasing cases and mutations of COVID-19 have had adverse effects on supply chains and production processes, resulting in global shortages. In addition to these challenges, organizations should consider other factors independent of COVID-19 to successfully address personnel issues.

The introduction of new technologies has fundamentally transformed the operations of supply chains globally. The rising expectations of consumers are driving a rapid transformation of supply chains. Modern operational processes are increasingly shaped by technology and innovations, adding complexity to supply chains. In this context, the line between traditional physical skills and those required in the technological field is becoming increasingly blurred in supply chain and production professions. Successfully meeting these demands requires a skillful combination of both physical and technological abilities, both now and in the future.

Climate change poses long-term challenges for supply chains, leading to disruptions of trade routes and infrastructure due to extreme weather events, droughts, and rising sea levels. These risks entail potential threats to national security and global stability. This year, the decline in water levels has significantly impacted major shipping routes. Due to low water levels, ships can only transport a fraction of their typical cargo to reduce the risk of grounding. For example, sections of the Chinese Yangtze River, responsible for 45% of the country’s economic output, were closed to shipping due to water levels more than 50% below normal. Additionally, two-thirds of Europe are facing drought conditions expected to become even more extreme. These conditions are likely to have significant implications for supply chains.

In today’s global business landscape, the growing significance of geopolitics requires a comprehensive integration of geopolitical risk analysis into the framework of corporate strategy and leadership.

Now more than ever, it is essential for organizations to proactively address and manage geopolitical risks to protect their interests and ensure sustainable success. In this context, Agnoscis offers your organization an opportunity to gain substantial value.

By utilizing this platform, you can continuously maintain awareness of existing and emerging risks. The ability to monitor fluctuations and changes in politically relevant trends that affect your organization provides a strategic advantage. This allows your organization to consistently assume a leading position, a crucial factor in effectively competing and succeeding in a market characterized by intense and constant change.

We progressively integrate a organization-specific environmental analysis and trend radar for you to identify economic, social, and political-regulatory trends by:

Discussing potential risks with you
Implementing a digital early warning system based on this information
Sustainably training artificial intelligence to identify similar risks
Offering personalized reports and regular updates if desired
We would be pleased to guide you through the process of establishing a global early warning system in a consultation.

Further information can be found on the following page.

We are pleased to announce the launch of nexSRM, the groundbreaking Stakeholder Relationship Management Platform. The beta version will be available from January 1, 2024, marking a milestone in how organizations manage and interact with their stakeholders.

Innovative Features of the Beta Version

The beta version of nexSRM offers a wealth of outstanding features aimed at revolutionizing the way you manage your relationships. From comprehensive audit excellence and secure legal compliance to customized stakeholder management – these features not only allow for perfect adaptation of each interaction to your company’s needs but also foster efficient teamwork and precise project management.

The planned integration of an AI assistant promises efficient template creation, analyses of your projects, and automated responses to enhance productivity.

nexSRM is more than just software – it is a versatile tool designed for various target audiences. In the realm of Public Affairs, it propels professionals into a new era of Stakeholder interaction by seamlessly enabling identification, organization, and communication.

For management, nexSRM provides the ultimate tool to smooth Stakeholder dynamics, from seamless organization to insightful audits.

In the field of Communication & Press, nexSRM aids in crafting compelling narratives and effortlessly managing media relationships.

For Relationship Managers, whose success relies on connections, nexSRM is the key tool facilitating easy strengthening and expansion of networks through flexible data imports and dynamic insights into Stakeholder relationships.

“nexSRM is a versatile solution designed for various target audiences. Whether you’re engaging with stakeholders, managing relationships with the press, or optimizing public relations, nexSRM is tailored to enhance productivity and streamline interactions across diverse business functions.” – Reza Eshtiagh, Managing Partner

Explore the future of stakeholder management with nexSRM!

If you are interested in our innovative software and would like to participate in the beta testing phase without obligation, please feel free to contact us. We look forward to collaborating with you and taking your stakeholder interactions to the next level. Let’s write the success story of your stakeholder relationships together!

For more information, visit the nexSRM website.

The European Union (EU) is planning to introduce several new laws in 2023 to adress various issues, including climate change, digital transformation and economic recovery. Therefore, we would like to provide you with an overview of the most important legislative initiatives of the EU, that will have an impact on a variety of businesses. The EU’s goal to become climate-neutral by 2050 is a major undertaking, that is set to be further advanced this year and affects many different policy areas, such as supply chains and the operations of companies themselves. The digital transformation is also set to be further regulated with regard to data security and limiting the dominance of some companies in this sector. The EU is also attempting to mitigate the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the war of aggression against Ukraine, through several economic programs. With the Recovery and Resilience Facility Program (RRF) and InvestEU, we can expect further specifications and elaborations of these programs this year.

These laws are part oft he EU’s long-term strategy to create a more sustainable, resilient and competetive Europe.

1. Digital Transformation
One of the key areas of focus for the EU Comission in 2023 is digital transformation. These laws are aimed at regulating digital markets, promoting innovation and preventing monopolies. In 2022 the EU passed the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and the Digital Services Act (DSA). These two new laws aim to regulate digital markets and try to prevent the abuse of dominant market positions by large tech companies. Also it aims to modernize the EU’s legal framwork for digital services. It will set new obligations for online platforms, such as transparency and accountability. The responsibility of the hosted content on platforms will be increased. The DMA and DSA will be applied by the member states by 2023.

2. Supply Chains
Another key piece of legislation set to be introduced in 2023 is the Due Diligence Directive. This proposed directive will require companies to conduct due diligence throughout their supply chain to identify and prevent human rights violations, environmental harm, and other adverse impacts. The directive will apply to all companies operating in the EU, regardless of their size or sector.

3. Climate Change
The EU aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, and in order to achieve this goal, the Commission will propose several new laws. These include a carbon border adjustment mechanism, which will impose a tariff on imports of goods from countries with weaker climate policies. The Commission will also propose new regulations to reduce the carbon footprint of buildings, promote sustainable transport, and increase the use of renewable energy.
One of the most significant pieces of legislation set to be introduced in 2023 is the Sustainable Corporate Governance Initiative (SCGI). This proposed regulation will require large companies to have a sustainability strategy in place, and to report on their environmental and social impact. It will also introduce due diligence requirements for companies to identify, prevent, and mitigate adverse impacts on human rights, the environment, and good governance throughout their supply chain.

The Fit-for-55 package includes a range of policies and regulations covering various sectors of the economy, such as energy, transport, buildings, and agriculture. These measures aim to support the transition to a more sustainable and low-carbon economy, while also creating jobs and promoting innovation. The EU is determined to lead the way in the fight against climate change, and the adoption of the Fit-for-55 package in 2023 will be a critical milestone in this journey. By working together, the EU can build a more sustainable and resilient future for all its citizens, while also setting an example for the rest of the world to follow.

The EU has an extensive agenda for 2023 in all policy areas. With PANALIS Monitoring and our briefings on various current legislative processes, you can easily stay up-to-date on the areas relevant to you, effectively and resource-efficiently.

Learn more about PANALIS. You can schedule your appointment here.

Political risks are a growing problem for companies. They pose a threat to the business, finances and success of the company. In an increasingly complex and volatile world, it is becoming increasingly important for companies to identify political risks at an early stage and to react to them appropriately.
The political risks for companies can be of a diverse nature. Here are some of the most common:

1. Regulatory Risks
Regulations can change quickly, which can have unforeseen business implications. For example, new laws and regulations may place new requirements on the products and services that the company offers.

2. Political instability
In countries experiencing political instability, civil unrest and conflict can affect business and markets.

3. Political corruption
Corruption is a major problem in many countries that can affect fair competition and business.

4. Trade barriers
Political decisions and trade agreements can lead to new trade barriers that affect business.

5. Political boycott
Political conflicts and decisions can result in customers or countries boycotting a company, which can lead to significant financial losses.

These are just a few examples of the political risks companies face. In order to minimize these risks, it is important to implement a political-regulatory early warning system. An early warning system helps companies and organizations to identify and assess political risks at an early stage in order to take appropriate measures.

Regulatory monitoring with Agnoscis Analytics

Based on possible regulatory risks, we would like to introduce how a regulatory early warning system can work with Agnoscis Analytics:

A regulatory early warning system is more than software. Rather is an entire process whereby companies are informed of upcoming regulatory changes before they come into force. This gives companies and industries time to prepare for the changes and ensure they can meet the new requirements without having to disrupt their operations.

With the development of AI and machine learning, companies can now implement data-based regulatory early warning systems. These systems use large amounts of political and regulatory data to identify and evaluate trends and developments in real time.

A data-based regulatory early warning system provides several benefits to companies, including:

• Time-Saving: Such a system automates the monitoring and analysis process, thus reducing the time required for manual monitoring and analysis.
• Efficiency: A data-based system employs advanced algorithms to analyze political and regulatory data, resulting in a more accurate and quicker assessment of risks.
• Comprehensive Monitoring: This system can monitor a range of political and regulatory sources, such as legislative documents, media reports, and political discussions, to provide a comprehensive understanding of political risks. Additionally, it takes into consideration various sources of information.
• Proactive Risk Management: With a data-based regulatory early warning system, companies can identify political risks early and take proactive measures to mitigate them before they have a significant impact.
• Decision-Making Support: A data-based regulatory early warning system provides companies with informed data to base their decisions on, allowing them to make well-informed decisions concerning political risks.

You can schedule your appointment here.

Managing stakeholder relationships is a central task of public affairs officers. Building trusting and long-term relationships with political decision-makers can be the decisive success factor for setting goals for your efforts. That is why we support your stakeholder management with tools to reduce the time needed and to enable project success.
Below you will find five tips for successful stakeholder management.

1. Identification of relevant stakeholders

In order to meet the challenges of successful stakeholder communication, the first step is to conduct basic research to identify the stakeholders relevant to the project.
A crucial question that you should answer early on: Which persons, groups of persons or organisations will be affected by the implementation of a regulation or a law? Which stakeholders can influence the outcome of the process?
The result of the stakeholder identification is a – ideally well-structured – list of all stakeholders, which can serve as a basis for the qualified stakeholder analysis.
Stakeholders who are important for the project can be found almost everywhere. In particular, stakeholders are of interest who have already taken up the subject of regulation in the past, have expressed a position on it or are likely to have it on the agenda in the future.
Social media is an excellent way to identify the stakeholders involved. The result of your stakeholder research would be a list of relevant stakeholders.
An efficient procedure for stakeholder identification is the use of PANALIS Monitoring. Via the large stakeholder search engine, all public contributions from stakeholders, regardless of the source, are indexed and analysed and automatically assigned to your specific topics.

EAn efficient procedure for stakeholder identification is the use of PANALIS Monitoring. Via the large stakeholder search engine, all public contributions from stakeholders, regardless of the source, are indexed and analysed and automatically assigned to your specific topics.

2. Communication strategy

Your stakeholder list can be categorised and prioritised in the further process. For this purpose, the positions and objectives of the stakeholders can be analysed and assigned to a suitable communication strategy. The creation of stakeholder maps provides you with an overview of the target group-specific information and thus makes it clear which message you want to convey.
To simplify matters, the stakeholders are divided into three different groups: The group of the positively and negatively inclined as well as the group of the undecided. Ideally, you should first focus on the group of undecided stakeholders. Of course, you will invest the most time resources in the group of negatively minded persons and organisations. For this reason, it is recommended to consider this group last.
A network analysis can also be informative in order to make the relationships between the stakeholders visible.

Learn how you can create individual stakeholder mappings with PANALIS Monitoring in just a few minutes in a webinar or in an online briefing.

3. Establishing and maintaining the relationship

This part is probably one of the most important phases of your communication strategy. A successful stakeholder management strategy includes a transparent line of communication with your stakeholders.
You should also have thought about the possible communication channels and carefully consider the format in which you want to convey your information.

All kinds of information can be recorded in PANALIS Monitoring. Use numerous note and management functions so that you can access it later.

4. Stay informed

Continuous monitoring enables the presentation of deadlines for action and an analysis of changes in regulations and the associated changes to your communication strategy.
Other stakeholders may also discover the topic for themselves. It is advisable to update your stakeholder analysis regularly.
Different information channels and a carefully selected monitoring system can significantly increase your work efficiency and help you not to miss any information.

Innovative policy monitoring is characterised by a high degree of automation and identifies the publications and stakeholders relevant to you on a topic- and industry-specific basis. This enables time-saving monitoring.

5. Use a professional stakeholder management software

The digital transformation has led to most companies and organisations abandoning the analogue variant.
The use of professional software is essential for the implementation of your qualified communication strategy. Public affairs officers encounter many stakeholders and need a management tool to keep track of current developments. In addition, the responsibilities of your stakeholders as well as your own areas of responsibility change from time to time, so that without the use of a professional solution, important information would be lost within your organisation if it is not filed.
With PANALIS Monitoring and its integrated Stakeholder Management solutions, internal and external meetings can be organised productively and all information can be recorded in one central place.
Contact us for a webinar.